Tuesday marked a significant shift in the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir, as the union territory is set get to its first government since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019.
Result trends released by the Election Commission of India show a clear majority for the National Conference-Congress alliance in Jammu and Kashmir.
Surprisingly, the BJP is struggling to gain momentum in its stronghold Jammu as well, as it historically remains a different political battle for parties eyeing power in the former north Indian state.
Voter turnout in the valley preceeded expectations as more than 60 per cent citizens cast their ballot during the three-phase polls. In the battle for Jammu and Kashmir, the most notable players where NC-Congress, the BJP, the PDP and the AIP-alliance.
Exit poll predictions had painted an uncertain picture for the Valley. While some showed no-majority for any political parties, a few suggested that the NC-Congress alliance could be looking towards forming a government.
However, no clear majority was predicted for the BJP- in two key regions, Jammu and Kashmir as well as Haryana. Though the saffron party seems to be winning Haryana, trends by ECI show the BJP trailing way behind the NC-Congress alliance in the valley.
The battle for statehood
The most prominent issues of the people in the valley include the Centre’s decision to strip the region off of its statehood, effectively ending a significant decision rooted in the Indian history since independence.
In August 2019, when the decision was passed into legislation in the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha, it came with a heavy price for those residing in the region: tight security, no access to the internet or phone network and increased scrutiny of the Central government.
This has been a reason of contention for many who faced difficulties connecting with their loved ones in the region for several months after August 2019.
While Jammu as a region celebrated the call for complete integration of the state into India, Kashmir valley remained distant from these festivities.
With a history marred in insurgency and the displacement of Kashmiri pandits, a whopping voter turnout was a surprising shift from the region’s violent past.
Political parties eager to gain the right to govern the region promised the reinstation of statehood to Jammu and Kashmir, with the NC-Congress alliance leading the call of the ‘reinstation of Article 370’ as well.
The BJP, too, claimed that statehood would be back in the valley should the saffron party form government.
Prime Minister Modi also expressed his vision of a ‘naya Kashmir’ during campaigning days. In his party’s manifesto, Modi promised jobs, better opportunities for the youth and directed sharp attacks on the three political families of Kashmir (Abdullahs of NC, Gandhis of Congress and Muftis of PDP).
The retort, however, fell short of achieving its target- that of gaining power in the valley.
NC-Congress: An alliance rooted in history
The alliance of the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference and the Indian National Congress goes back decades. The Rajeev Gandhi-led government had forged an alliance with Farooq Abdullah to form a government in the Valley in the run upto the insurgency of 1980s.
The two politically affluent families continued their kinship when they announced an alliance in 2024. This time, it is Rahul Gandhi and Omar Abdullah- who is poised to become the Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir.
When Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge came to Kashmir to announce the NC-Congress alliance, the two parties based their partnership on the promise of bringing back statehood to Jammu and Kashmir.
However, there are ideological differences that remain. Rahul Gandhi has criticised the Modi-led Central government scrapping article 370 in the state, and said that if Congress comes to power, they would fight to bring back the special status to the union territory.
But NC patriach Farooq Abdullah’s views are in contrast to what RaGa said during his campaigns.
In an interview with the Indian Express, Abdullah said that instead of focusing on Article 370, Congress should focus on other areas of improvement for the benefit of the region.
“Why not first look at what we can do, on progress, jobs,” Abdullah was quoted as saying.
PDP: A political setback
Former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti’s political party the PDP was nowhere in sight as BJP trailed right behind the Congress-NC alliance on result day.
Mufti’s daughter, Iltija conceded defeat earlier on Tuesday and the party, as of 4:30PM on October 8, managed to win only three seats in the assembly elections.
Notably, this is a fall from the rise for Mufti, who formed a government in Jammu and Kashmir in 2014, in collaboration with the BJP. That alliance did not last long, with Mufti turning on the BJP once the political relations turned soar.
As the union territory looks to a new government, its first in this form, the Bhartiya Janata Party’s loss in the state signals people’s verdict towards perhaps, a different kind of change.
