With voting in the Haryana Assembly elections concluding on Saturday, attention now shifts to the upcoming exit polls ahead of the official results on October 8. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is vying for a third consecutive term, while the Congress is looking to regain power after a decade in opposition.
Past Exit Polls in Haryana:
In the 2014 Haryana Assembly elections, exit polls generally forecasted a BJP win, but slightly underestimated the party’s final tally. Most exit polls predicted the BJP would win around 43 seats in the 90-member assembly, falling just short of the majority mark of 46 seats. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) was expected to be the second-largest party with around 27 seats, while Congress was projected to win only 13 seats.
However, the actual results exceeded these predictions:
- BJP won 47 seats, securing a majority.
- Congress ended up with 15 seats, slightly better than expected.
- INLD fell short, winning 19 seats instead of the projected 27.
Polls like News 24-Chanakya and ABP News-Nielsen came close to predicting BJP’s majority, while Times Now and India TV-CVoter accurately forecast Congress’s final tally. INLD’s underperformance compared to expectations was the major surprise.
The 2019 Elections:
In the 2019 elections, most exit polls incorrectly predicted a landslide BJP victory, with some estimating that the party would win more than 70 seats. Eight different polls predicted an average of 61 seats for the BJP, with Congress lagging at around 18 seats.
The actual results defied these expectations:
- BJP won only 40 seats, falling short of the majority.
- Congress performed better than expected, winning 31 seats.
India Today-Axis was the only pollster to correctly anticipate that BJP would fall short of a majority, predicting 32-44 seats for the BJP and 30-42 seats for Congress. On average, the exit polls overestimated BJP’s tally by 21 seats and underestimated Congress’s tally by 13 seats.
Current Context:
As the 2024 exit polls approach, political analysts are keenly watching for whether trends seen in 2019—where polls overestimated BJP’s support—will repeat. With both BJP and Congress putting up a strong fight, the exit polls will give a crucial indication of where voter sentiment lies heading into the announcement of the official results on October 8.
