On June 26, the Lok Sabha presented an unusual sight. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi made a polite handshake after the election of NDA candidate Om Birla as the Lok Sabha speaker. The two leaders then accompanied Birla to the speaker’s chair. That is because Rahul holds the Constitutional position as leader of the Opposition (LoP), while Modi is the leader of the House. Though Rahul has been seen as the main opponent of prime minister Modi for long, he was never acknowledged formally as the topmost leader of the Opposition. With the Congress emerging as the biggest opposition party by winning 99 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Rahul became the Opposition’s obvious choice to lead it in Parliament. Since then, politics in India has become more about Modi versus Rahul.
The LoP is seen as the shadow prime minister. The LoP post not only signifies the status of a leader and his party, it also comes with several powers and privileges, including the rank of a cabinet minister. But what matters more than the privileges is the strikingness the LoP gets in national politics, as his words carry more weight and impact. For a long time, there has been a contentious debate over whether Rahul is the most deserving among the Opposition leaders for the post of prime minister. As LoP his claim to the prime minister’s post is now even stronger. This has made a big difference in the politics of perception regarding Rahul Gandhi who, not long ago, was not considered even a serious politician, let alone a national leader and a credible challenger to Modi.
This is also the first time in a decade that the Lok Sabha has a leader of Opposition. In the previous two Lok Sabha terms, though the Congress was the largest Opposition party, it did not have a minimum number of seats (55) required to have the post of LoP. Rahul Gandhi as LoP matters because it signifies the coming of age of a leader whom the BJP had turned into a joke figure: a bumbling “pappu” who hardly matched the larger-than-life status of the prime minister. It matters even more because of the salience Rahul is now getting both inside and outside Parliament. And it matters equally because BJP will not be able to dismiss him as an immature and non-serious politician.
However, it seems not much has changed for the BJP, including Modi, as regards Rahul Gandhi whom it continues to treat as bit of a joke, though nobody is laughing any longer. For instance, in the first session of the current Lok Sabha six weeks ago, Modi mocked Rahul Gandhi by repeatedly referring to the LoP as a child without taking his name and using the “balak buddhi” jibe. Modi’s comments were in reply to LoP Rahul’s speech in Parliament where he made some hard remarks on the prime minister, Hindutva, and some industrialists. Infantilising Rahul and saying he is immature and has a “childish mind” has been the BJP’s strategy to mock and dimmish the Congress leader for a long time.
Even after Rahul having become the LoP, BJP continues to belittle him and shows scant respect for the Constitutional post he holds. Recent example: contrary to protocol, at the Independence Day celebration in Red Fort last week, Rahul Gandhi was made to seat in the fifth row, which the Congress said exposed the “pettiness” of BJP, though the government refuted the charge and said the seating was decided as per the table of precedence and to honour the Olympians. According to a defence ministry official, “This time it was decided to honour medal winners in the recent Olympics. The Congress MP (Gandhi) as well as some Union ministers had to be shifted back as the seats were allocated to Olympic medal winners.”
Much of BJP’s popularity, as also that of the prime minister, over the past decade came from its command over social media and its ability to mould public opinion. However, with the social media challenging the official narrative and hammering it hard, BJP’s ability to influence public opinion began to collapse even before the results of the 2024 general election were out. Modi’s failure to reach the numbers he so confidently expected has diminished his stature and ability to rule like he did in his earlier two terms. This has not only dented his image and popularity but also his connect with the masses. With the BJP having lost the election but the its allies saving the day for the saffron party, Modi’s dream run has hit a major hurdle, though the government still has total control over agencies and can continue to use them to target Opposition leaders.
It would be wrong to deny that Modi is still more popular than Rahul Gandhi. This was also the case in the 2019 general election when the two leaders who were the lead campaigners for their respective parties and alliances were Modi (BJP/NDA) and Rahul Gandhi (Congress/UPA). But a large measure of Modi’s anxieties in the 2019 general election had to do with the emergence of Rahul as an important Opposition leader. Not many expected the Congress to triumph, but Rahul’s remarkable comeback at the national level kept him in the hunt. Probably, if Pulwama had not happened two months before the election, that led to the consolidation of the Hindu votes around the BJP, the outcome of the election would have been different and Rahul Gandhi could have become the leader of Opposition.
Much like 2019, today a large measure of Modi’s anxieties and problems are because of Rahul Gandhi and the unity of the Opposition under the I.N.D.I.A bloc. Much has been written about the re-emergence of Rahul in national politics after his marathon Bharat Jodo Yatra. Suffice it to say that there is a marked difference in Rahul Gandhi of 2024 than the Rahul of 2014 or 2019. He is confident, fearless and has a great improvement in his oratory skills that makes the BJP quiver. And to top it all, there is no other Opposition leader who enjoys as much popularity as Rahul. All this makes him a credible challenger to the prime minister; a leader who speaks clearly and coherently about issues: crony capitalism, rural distress, inflation, cost of living crisis and unemployment. When he speaks in Parliament, the BJP looks rattled. The days when he could be dismissed are over.
