The crisis in Bangladesh has reinvigorated in India a significant worry: will the new regime continue Sheikh Hasina’s policy of keeping India in its good books and cooperate with New Delhi on the larger strategic and security front? History tells us that the leaders and party about to take control of Bangladesh have a blemished record, marred by their support for anti-India elements. One such leader might be returning to mainstream politics in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh President Mohammed Shahabuddin announced on Monday the release of jailed opposition leader and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, hours after Sheikh Hasina resigned as the country’s prime minister and fled Bangladesh. The decision to set the former Prime Minister free was taken after a meeting between the military and political parties of Bangladesh to form an interim government.
Khaleda Zia, who is Sheikh Hasina’s biggest rival, was imprisoned in 2018 after she was sentenced to 17 years in prison in a graft case. Her release from prison signifies the hold she continues to have over the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, of which she remains the chairman. It is believed that despite her ill health, Khaleda Zia will play a pivotal role in the interim government set to be formed.
Although the BNP claims its leader was made the victim of a political witch hunt, there is no denying that Begum Khaleda Zia has been a troublesome leader when it comes to handling Indian interests in Bangladesh. It is well known that she, along with her son Tarique Rehman Zia ran a corrupt government in the early 2000s. Tarique and his younger brother even ran an extortion racket and a parallel government during Khaleda Zia’s prime ministership.
For India, the return of Khaleda Zia to mainstream Bangladeshi politics is not a positive sign of times to come. It was during Zia’s rule, first from 1991 to 1996, and then from 2002 to 2006 that insurgencies in Northeast India surged.
In fact, Zia’s Home Minister is in jail for arranging arms and ammunition from Pakistan for ULFA – arguably the strongest insurgent group of the Northeast back in the day. It is an open secret that during her rule, Bangladesh worked in close coordination with Pakistan to subvert Indian interests and create a terror-conducive environment for jihadis.
Shockingly, in 1997, Khaleda Zia openly announced the BNP’s support for insurgent groups in Northeast India, claiming that they were fighting a war of independence. She said: “They (the northeastern insurgents) are fighting for independence. We also fought for it, so we are always in favour of any independence movement.”
Zia added that the use of Bangladesh’s army will not be allowed against Northeastern insurgent groups. Interestingly, when Sheikh Hasina took over, she became a key partner in India’s fight against militancy, and provided great assistance in cracking down on insurgents operating against India from Bangladeshi soil.
In many ways, Khaleda Zia’s rule facilitated the mushrooming of an anti-India narrative in Bangladesh, so much so that ordinary Bangladeshis began growing hostile to New Delhi over what they thought was interference in their internal politics. This crevice has only grown larger in the years gone by. Today, the BNP and Jamaat inherit a Bangladesh where India is viewed as an overpowering entity. Especially popular is the narrative that Muslims are now unsafe in India.
Historically, the BNP has used an anti-India plank to reap electoral dividends. It is not a surprise that the BNP’s latest attempt has been at spearheading the “India Out” campaign in Bangladesh, as part of which influencers have been urging people to boycott India economically.
For India, the events that have unfolded in Bangladesh represent a strategic setback – a significant one at that. Sources have said ISI sleeper cells were working full time in Dhaka to dislodge Hasina. It is understood that Pakistan, which is tacitly supported by China, wants an anti-India regime in charge of Bangladesh so that it can activate a new front against New Delhi in the East.
The rise of BNP and the ultra-radical Jamaat-e-Islami poses significant challenges for India. For starters, both these parties – aided by Pakistan and other foreign powers – could make an anti-India stance their main plank here on. It needs to be remembered that the BNP has failed to win elections in Bangladesh for many years. As such, it will need a pan-national agenda to unite its supporters and capitalise on the political vacuum that has emerged in the country.
There are also apprehensions that Northeast India could face the brunt of an anti-India regime taking control of Bangladesh. Pakistan and China have a lot of interest in reviving the dormant insurgencies of Northeast India. Previously, during BNP rule, several insurgents were provided safe harbour and weapons in Bangladesh.
The Sheikh Hasina administration was instrumental in curbing insurgent activities and fostering a cooperative relationship between Dhaka and New Delhi. The rise of the BNP, coupled with the influence of ISI-backed Jamaat-e-Islami, threatens to reverse these gains and destabilise the region. The potential for increased insurgent activity and the involvement of external actors like Pakistan and China necessitates a strategic response from New Delhi.
